Pound-Euro 2016

[Jimbo]

I notice various people have started the usual discussion on Facebook about whether it's better to buy Euros now or wait and see if the rate goes up.
Today (March 17) TravelFX's rate is 1.245.

Before Xmas it was over 1.4 - that is before Cameron announced the referendum date in February. The referendum has created a climate of instability, so it's very unlikely that we are going to see the rate go much higher.

HSBC and other banks are predicting a potential drop of 20% in the rate in the event of a Brexit vote: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/24/brexit-could-wipe-20-percent-off-the-pound-warns-hsbc

The net result of that would be (on today's rates) a new rate of 0.996. As a consequence, we could expect a 20% increase in the cost of a holiday.

The conclusion for me is that it's probably better to buy Euros well before June. If it goes much above 1.3 I'll get some.

[rilo57]

About time we got a good rate for visiting the UK..lol

[Jimbo]

Spot on. You'll be an effective export! Congratulations.

[rilo57]

Yammas

[Intentioncraft]

Expect the best,prepare for the worst,capitalise on what comes.

[Waspman]

Nobody knows, you pay your money and take your chance, simple as that.

[Rover]

I suspect that as we approach the referendum the rate will drop. The finance world dislikes uncertainty.

[Jimbo]

Yes - Waspman is right in general - but this year is different.

[Waspman]

Just got back from Spain, I got 1.29 - 1.31 exchange rate using a no commission credit card, beats anything available in the UK. Even got 1.30 from an ATM.
Ask Jimbo, he knows.

[Jimbo]

As predicted, the pound:euro rate is oscillating around the 1.26 level. I get a daily newsletter from currency traders IMX, and they're saying that the uncertainty prevailing until after the referendum will keep the pound at around this level. So it really does look as though this kind of mid one-point-two rate is what we're going to get, at least until late June.

What happens after June 23 is anybody's guess. Credit Swiss predict that a Stay vote would see the pound rise against the Euro to about 1.4, and Goldman Sachs predict that a Leave vote might see the pound drop by 16%-20%.

Interesting gamble?

[rilo57]

Well thats good for us then.we can benifit when we are over in UK in May..

[Jimbo]

This morning (April 7th) IMX report:

This morning the Pound has touched new lows against the Euro falling below 1.2350 for the first time since May 2014. The Pound is having a torrid time against all its major counterparts and shows no signs of recovering. The current 'Brexit' debate is being priced in the market as a UK issue and could see the Pound fall further!

[Dupnica]

 Oh no Jim don't tell me I've missed May,thought it was still April!

[Jimbo]

Whoops! Ta - changed it.

[Lesley]

Sidari ATM today Saturday 1.13..........not good but needed the euros to pay the phone bill........