Pound-Euro 2016

[Jimbo]

It's a bit better. It's been oscillating around the upper 1.13s for a while. It's still rubbish.

[Tredegar Boy]

Travel FX 1.1557

[Jimbo]

As I write (12.38 BST 12/04/2017) TravelFX is up to 1.1627.

If you're going soon this might be a good time to buy cash.

[Dupnica]

 Been thinking about it SterlingFX is offering the same rate and you can purchase with your Debit or Credit card.

[Tredegar Boy]

its always a dilema. I could never play the markets me no bottle.......too conservative........to scared

[Jimbo]

SterlingFX is slightly lower but, of course, debit card is easier.

[Tredegar Boy]

1.1766 travelfx at 5.17pm 18/4

Thats the best for a while. Decisions decisions. £ at its highest since mid-December but how long can it go on going up is the question.

[Jimbo]

You beat me! Just bought some.

The pound went up, the shares went down. Most commentators I've seen think this is because if Theresa May gets a big majority the influence of the Hard Brexit contingent of MPs will weaken.

It's probably going to fluctuate a lot over the next six weeks!

[Tredegar Boy]

Yep Jimbo and me. TravelFX 1.1806 (it was 1.1803 when I started.....weird). 1.1972 exchange rate at present. the best since 24th July 2016. wow. that's got to be a big positive at the mo. 

[Dupnica]

 Don't expect it will reach the dizzy heights of 1.39 that we got two years ago.Those were the days!! It is creeping towards the 1.26 that we got last June.

[Tredegar Boy]

If it gets back upto 1.26 that will have reversed all the post brexit vote losses. Interesting that the Bundesbank have gone short on the £ as they expect it to continue to rise.
 

[Jimbo]

Well, it fell back a bit again. Looks like the 1.17x level is the new norm on TravelFX.

The next major event is the French elections. First round on Sunday - but that will only be resolved on May 7. France is now as divided as we are. A victory for the extreme Right's Frexit policy will almost certainly turn the euro into rubbish.

[Tredegar Boy]

The thing about the French elections are that both Melenchon and le Pen have anti-establishment views on the EU with the latter wanting to leave the euro and a referendum on EU membership while the former wants to take on Germany and challenge how things are done via their monetary policy. A second round run-off between those two all bets will be off. 

[Jimbo]

Those who bought last week were wise. The euro has strengthened a lot after the French vote almost ensures a victory for the pro-European Macron. The fears of Frexit seem to have been allayed, and everywhere apart from the UK the mood is (narrowly) to continue with an ever-stronger (on the world stage) EU.

So the TravelFX rate is down to 1.1634 as I write.

[Tredegar Boy]

They haven't had the run-off yet Jimbo but you're right the non-party Macron should win.

Next up Italy in early 2018. The 4 anti-EU parties over there account for over 50% of the vote as I type. That will be interesting especially if the ECB withdraw quantative easing as the year unfolds when the Italian banks will be in trouble.