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Pound-Euro 2016

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Tredegar Boy:
If it gets back upto 1.26 that will have reversed all the post brexit vote losses. Interesting that the Bundesbank have gone short on the £ as they expect it to continue to rise.
 

Jimbo:
Well, it fell back a bit again. Looks like the 1.17x level is the new norm on TravelFX.

The next major event is the French elections. First round on Sunday - but that will only be resolved on May 7. France is now as divided as we are. A victory for the extreme Right's Frexit policy will almost certainly turn the euro into rubbish.

Tredegar Boy:
The thing about the French elections are that both Melenchon and le Pen have anti-establishment views on the EU with the latter wanting to leave the euro and a referendum on EU membership while the former wants to take on Germany and challenge how things are done via their monetary policy. A second round run-off between those two all bets will be off. 

Jimbo:
Those who bought last week were wise. The euro has strengthened a lot after the French vote almost ensures a victory for the pro-European Macron. The fears of Frexit seem to have been allayed, and everywhere apart from the UK the mood is (narrowly) to continue with an ever-stronger (on the world stage) EU.

So the TravelFX rate is down to 1.1634 as I write.

Tredegar Boy:
They haven't had the run-off yet Jimbo but you're right the non-party Macron should win.

Next up Italy in early 2018. The 4 anti-EU parties over there account for over 50% of the vote as I type. That will be interesting especially if the ECB withdraw quantative easing as the year unfolds when the Italian banks will be in trouble. 

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