Holiday Insurance.

[Richard/Jackie/Nathan]

Surely a lot of Italians come over on the ferry?

[maggiesaes]

I think it will be ferries too before too long.

[Jimbo]

Greece currently has 66 cases - all apparently link to a group who went to Israel and Egypt in February. Unlike the Italians, Greece has got its act together from day one. All sports and many social events will take place without spectators for two weeks, and there will be no school trips.

Italy ranks sixth in tourist visitors to Greece, but I can't find statistics for Corfu, which, given its proximity, I expect to be higher. It's obvious that Greece is taking the situation seriously. It's vital for it to protect the tourist income as far as possible. Over 10 million people come from other European countries each year, compare to about 1.3 million from Italy. Those people must be made to feel safe and confident. If Italy is still in effective lock-down, I expect stringent tests and measures to be put in place. Greece is good at stringent measures: it put a huge proportion of its own on people on bread and water to tackle the demands of the IMF and ECB.

[geordieborn]

Italy has one of the best medical systems in Europe, and I’d for one put them up against anything in the UK. Okay their hygiene (kissing on meet) might be suspect and a feature, but if it’s like Spanish flu, there is, for whatever reason, an under reporting of the true situation going on. I would not believe anything this UK government has told us, simply because of the tissue of lies and miss-information they have come out with e.g. “we have been in discussions with the supermarkets…” when they say not!  Okay a trivial one, but there are many more. To put it simply I don’t trust them and I suspect the situation is a lot more tenuous. Let’s hope this is all wrong and in a few weeks’ time we are all looking forward to Corfu, somehow I think not!

[Gavlah1973]

Im tending to agree with you GB

Its not meant to peak for 3 months

I do wonder if we'll get to the point where non essential air/ferry travel is cancelled

[Lesley]

Over here in Corfu, things are pretty calm, there are no shortages of toilet roll, soap or other items and whilst according to local news reports there have been people tested there are no confirmed cases here on the island.  Yesterday in Corfu Town the Parade for Othodoxy Sunday with the bands playng went ahead as normal.  I haven't seen anyone wearing masks.
The leading headlnes are more towards the sad situation on the borders with the migrant situation and Ergodan.  Followed by the Co-Vid situation in Northern Italy. 
So really we will have to wait and see on a daily basis if anything changes - whilst meanwhile life goes on as normal - of course the daily chat in the local kafeneions is about Ergodan, the Italian situation and the effect of all this on the tourism sector.  So it is business as normal........

[maggiesaes]

I don’t think there is any reason to suspect things are worse than we are being told and  I am not panicking at all at the moment.

[Jimbo]

Panic achieves nothing. But there will certainly be many more cases, because the statistics can only report upon what is notified. People with mild symptoms will not get themselves tested or talk to a doctor.

Italy has exponential growth in infections and deaths. UK numbers are rising at a slightly slower rate, but still significantly. The UK is a few weeks behind Italy and we can expect a similar, but not identical rise. The government is aiming to push the peak back into the summer to spread the load. We may well see a ban on most group social activities in a few weeks' time.

The bald fact is that the virus will spread throughout the community. We have no immunity to it. Older people (I'm one) must be protected as much as possible until herd immunity has built up, when the virus will cease to spread.

Given the USA's massive incompetence in taking this seriously there may soon be a case for banning flights from America!

It's all very sad - but there is no magic potion that will wish it away.

[maggiesaes]

Spot on Jim.

[geordieborn]

Some call it panic, others common sense. Facts are the UK government here are now advising you not to travel to Italy. They infer (quote) an end date of 31Dec20 (okay subject to change), so your insurance will be invalid should you travel there. How long before this is extended to other countries, could people get to Corfu or elsewhere (like now) and not be able to get back? I don’t believe much the current UK government tell us in any case, more so on the subject of the virus as their only real concern (important as it is) is the cost in money terms.

[maggiesaes]

There is a difference between common sense and panic,and I have just been to our GP surgery for a routine blood test appointment and there is calm there.
I find no reason not to trust what we are being told by the Government via the Chief Medical Officer and shall be guided by their advice.
If they advise not to travel then I shan't travel,but I think money is way down the list of priorities and do not think making the situation political is going to be in the least productive,quite the opposite.This is a global threat.

[geordieborn]

You read too much into post M. I've never been one for trusting HMG whatever their politics. There are facts out there whereby they have lied. If they come out and ban sporting events once Cheltenham is over, I’ll be even more suspicious ….

[Jimbo]

Can't agree with you on this, GB. The stats are ratified by the WHO. The infection rate is rising. Before long, if nothing is done, it will rise exponentially, as it is in Italy.

I have an Italian friend who is an international interpreter and university interpreter lecturer. She was official interpreter for the Italian football team. She is highly intelligent. Last week she posted a devastating rant on Facebook criticising the incompetence of the Italian authorities. When they closed the Northern Italy universities they did not stipulate that students and staff must remain there, and consequently students left for all parts of the country. As we have seen, every region of Italy now has a steeply-rising infection rate. The same thing happened when they announced the restrictions for the whole of the north - thousands fled overnight to all regions.

This is serious situation, and we make have to accept that 2020 will be a write-off in terms of social events and travel. This may have terrible consequences for the tourist industry in the Mediterranean region, which has a short season. TUI's shares are down 12%, and may fall further.

Unlike many evils of the last decade, the government is not responsible for this one.  I don't quite see what there is for them to lie about, frankly. We can argue about their strategy, but they have said what it is.

Corfu is the nearest  point in Greece to Italy. It is vulnerable.   

[Jimbo]

A short while ago the UK's deputy chief medical officer responded to criticism of the government's failure to ban sporting events:

Dr Harries said cancelling big outdoor events like football matches would not necessarily be a decision supported by science.

"The virus will not survive very long outside," she said. "Many outdoor events, particularly, are relatively safe."

BBC

That may be good news for places like Corfu, where most things happen outside. I am seeking expert opinion.

[Lesley]

All everyone I speak to keeps asking me (and I don't have the answer) is why is Italy in such a serious situation stats show the worse outside of China?