Pound-Euro 2016

[Jimbo]

Yo-yo. Down is the new up!

[tonyco1]

1.17164 Today upward trend at present
Pound to Euro Exchange Rate: Forecast for the Week Ahead by Poundsterlinglive.com
The pound to euro is in a short-term uptrend after positive data from the UK dispelled myths the economy was going to lurch into a chasm after Brexit.
The GBP/EUR pair has hit highs of 1.1783 during trading in the previous week -  a far cry from the 1.1457 lows of the 16th.

The pair is now in an established short-term trend higher, with peaks and troughs on the up.

As a result, we now see the pair poised to move even higher, with a break above the 1.1783 highs confirming more upside to a target at 1.1845 where the monthly pivot is situated and likely to prove a tough obstacle to further gains.
From a data perspective, in the week ahead the GBP/EUR pair, will see significant data from the Eurozone in the shape of August inflation data and out of the UK Manufacturing, Services and Construction PMIs.

Analysts at Credit Agricole see the euro as well supported, and likely to continue to be so:

“The EUR has been well supported of late. This appears to be on the back of stable ECB rate expectations and reduced sensitivity to risk sentiment. Regardless of inflation expectations as measured by 5Y inflation swaps being close to historic lows, we see limited scope for the ECB to consider a more dovish monetary policy stance any time soon. This is especially true when it comes to interest rates.” Said the French lender in a recent note.

For the pound, analyst Bo Jacobsen at Nordea Bank, is expecting a slight recovery:

“The August manufacturing PMI will show whether activity deteriorated further or recovered after the slump in July, which followed the Brexit vote in June. We expect the PMI to rise to 49.0 from July’s 48.2, which was the lowest since the financial crisis in early 2009.“

Overall the euro appears to have limited downside due to a combination of potentially lower global risk appetite from falling commodity prices, a large current account surplus and the lack of ammunition still available to the ECB with which to ease, from a purely fundamental viewpoint, therefore risks remain marginally tilted to the downside for the pair.

[Rover]

It all makes sense now.

[Jimbo]

Soothsayers are all very well! Today's Interbank rate is 1.1790 - Euros on TravelFX 1.1621

The Euro rate does not really reflect the wonderfulness of GBP - it reflects the ratio of the value of the pound against the Euro - and the Euro is slightly down because German inflation rates were slightly down. The GBP/$ rates remains appallingly low since the Brexit vote - and that's what we buy oil with.

[Andy7]

I always buy Euros at Thomas cook, no commission and no hassle, today they are offering 1.16, the question is will it rise further? I have based my late September holiday money on 1.15 so anything above this is a bonus. I wonder if Jimbo is hanging on for an even better rate? What do you reckon Jimbo?

Andy

[Jimbo]

Duh! Forum behaving badly. Will try tomorrow.

[Jimbo]

The pound went up a bit against the euro and then went down. The interbank rate briefly peaked at over 1.19 and then dropped today to 1.183.

Euro cash is around the 1.1665 level as I write. This seems to me to be the level we can expect in the foreseeable future. So be it.

[Jimbo]

Despite prophecies of a massive surge in the pound, the post-referendum doldrums continue. The Interbank rate is currently 1.646, and TravelFX is selling at 1.1492

The perils of buying cash at the airport were clear when we flew out: TravelX at Leeds/Bradford was selling at 1.05 - which is pretty close to parity!

[Jimbo]

Let's face it - the rates are dire. Following the PM's Brexit date announcement the pound went into what IMX currency traders described as "a further plunge into the abyss." The Euro is also getting stronger. So tonight TravelFX is offering 1.1183 and TravelX 1.1062

Obviously, most people will be looking ahead to next year. At the moment it looks like Tasty Corner will be doing well!

With a thirty-year low against the dollar we are bound to see fuel and other costs rise in the UK.

[Andy7]

It's desperate Jimbo, managed to get my Lanzarote holiday money at 1.13 on Monday before the pound went into free fall.

Hope something turns up before next spring otherwise I will be joining the que at Tasty Corner!

For those of us who like our foreign holidays Brexit is a disaster.

Oh well, I hear Skegness has a good beach.

Andy

[Jimbo]

The only thing that drags Skeggy from the fifties to the 21st Century is the huge offshore wind farm!

I can't see any reason why the pound will strengthen any time soon. Currency traders hate uncertainty. Theresa May's announcement that she'd trigger Article 50 in March was clearly designed to increase the Tory vote in the local elections. So far, that's all anybody knows. IMX also said "This could be the end of the pound as we know it."

[Andy7]

OMG just when you thought it couldn't get any worse the pound this morning collapsed following aggressive selling in Asia, at one stage reaching 1.09! It's since risen to 1.11 but this will still imply a bank exchange rate well below 1.09.

At this rate the pound will soon be worth the same as a Zimbabwe dollar!

Forget Tasty Corner next year it will be too expensive, instead I foresee forum members dividing up a loaf of bakery bread while watching the Eastern Europeans living it up at the Little Prince!

Andy

[Jimbo]

TravelFX now selling 1.09 - which is close to parity. Duh!

[Jimbo]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37609114

It's not quite that bad on TravelFX - 1.09 - If anybody can think of any reason why it might get better I'd be interested to hear it!

[Jimbo]

The world of currency traders remains a mystery. As you may have noticed, the pound's been bobbling around at about 1.1 for a period.

TravelFX struggled up to actually selling euros at 1.1 today. That was, apparently, because post-Brexit-vote cost rises are starting to emerge and are now steadily increasing, with fuel the first rise. So we seem to be looking at at least a 2% increase in the cost of living next year, and possibly up to 5%.

In terms of holidays, we're all obviously now focused on next year. Most forecasts indicate that we're not likely to see the pound strengthen over the next two years or so, so it's possible to work out potential costs now. As the pound sinks the euro is rising. We can reasonably assume nearly pound-for-euro in 2017. So an apartment costing a typical 500 for two weeks will cost around £500 - it would have cost £446 at a rate of 1.12 and £442 at 1.13

Everything's going to cost more. But tavernas and traders in Agios Stefanos have tried very hard over many years to keep costs down. Try going to Kassiopi  or Paleo and see how much it costs. Given their escalating tax burden, I wonder how long they can sustain this.

So - to be positive - Agios Stefanos is likely still to be extremely good value for money.